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CHEVRON CORP (CVX) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 EPS beat consensus while revenue was slightly below: Adjusted EPS was $1.85 vs Wall Street consensus $1.70*; sales and other operating revenues were $48.17B vs consensus $48.30B*, amid record production and integration of Hess .
  • Reported earnings were $3.5B and adjusted earnings $3.6B; special items totaled $235MM (mainly Hess severance/transaction costs) and FX added $147MM; cash returned to shareholders was $6.0B (buybacks $2.6B, dividends $3.4B) .
  • Production hit a company record 4,086 MBOED (+21% YoY), including 495 MBOED from legacy Hess; CFFO was $9.4B and adjusted FCF $7.0B, helped by a $1.0B loan repayment from TCO .
  • Guidance color: FY25 organic CapEx remains $17–$17.5B, “in line with guidance”; full-year production growth guided to the top end of 6–8% (ex-Hess); dividend maintained at $1.71/share (payable Dec 10) .
  • Key near-term catalyst: Nov 12 Investor Day (cash flow growth trajectory, Hess synergies, portfolio strategy) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record worldwide net oil-equivalent production (4,086 MBOED, +21% YoY), with legacy Hess contributing 495 MBOED and strong growth in Permian, Gulf of Mexico, and TCO; management emphasized “record production” and “strong cash generation” .
  • Downstream earnings improved YoY (U.S. $638MM vs $146MM; International $499MM vs $449MM) on higher refined product margins and lower OpEx; U.S. refinery crude inputs rose on capacity at Pasadena LTO project .
  • Adjusted FCF rose to $7.0B (vs $4.6B YoY), supported by TCO loan repayment ($1B) and asset sale proceeds; cash returns ($6.0B) were fully covered by adjusted FCF .
    • “We expect strong cash generation to continue even in a lower-priced environment” — CFO Eimear Bonner .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY earnings decline (adjusted $3.6B vs $4.5B) driven by lower liquids realizations, higher DD&A from production ramp-ups, and Hess-related costs; Brent averaged $69 vs $80 YoY .
  • U.S. upstream earnings fell YoY ($1,282MM vs $1,946MM) on lower liquids realizations and transaction/severance costs, partially offset by higher volumes .
  • FX headwinds reversed vs Q3’24 (FX added $147MM in Q3’25 but was −$44MM in Q3’24); higher interest expense and pension curtailment costs increased corporate “All Other” net charges .

Financial Results

Actuals vs Consensus (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Sales and Other Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)48.93 46.10 44.38 48.17
Diluted EPS ($)2.48 2.00 1.45 1.82
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)49.04*48.39*45.14*48.30*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)2.42*2.15*1.74*1.70*

Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Margins (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %19.4%*18.5%*19.0%*21.7%*
EBIT Margin %10.9%*9.6%*9.2%*9.9%*
Net Income Margin %9.1%*7.6%*5.6%*7.3%*
Gross Profit Margin %38.4%*38.2%*39.7%*43.8%*

Financial ratios marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Earnings Breakdown ($USD Millions)

SegmentQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Upstream – U.S.1,946 1,418 1,282
Upstream – International2,643 1,309 2,020
Downstream – U.S.146 404 638
Downstream – International449 333 499
All Other(697) (974) (900)
Net Income (CVX)4,487 2,490 3,539

KPIs (operational and cash flow)

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Oil-Equivalent Production (MBOED)3,364 3,396 4,086
Cash Flow From Operations ($B)9.7 8.6 9.4
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($B)4.6 4.9 7.0
Capital Expenditures ($B)4.1 3.7 4.4
ROCE (%)10.1% 6.2% 7.6%
Debt Ratio (end of period, %)14.2% 16.8% 18.0%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Organic CapExFY 2025“In line with guidance”$17–$17.5B Maintained
Production Growth (ex-Hess)FY 2025Closer to top end of 6–8% Top end of 6–8% Raised
Dividend per shareQ4 2025$1.71 (Q2’25 payable Sep 10) $1.71, payable Dec 10 Maintained
Affiliate distributions/TCOQ4 2025Not specifiedLower in Q4 due to TCO pit stop and cash conservation for 2026 loan repayments Clarified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Hess integration & synergiesDeal closed in July; $1B run-rate synergies targeted; accretive in Q4 Confirmed delivery of $1B run-rate synergies in 2025; strong legacy Hess production; Yellowtail first oil; Hammerhead FID Strengthening
TCO (Kazakhstan)Ramp to nameplate; above-nameplate performance; integrated control center; affiliate distributions beating guide Nameplate reliability; Q4 pit stop planned; concession extension talks started; loan repayments in 2026 Operationally strong; near-term maintenance
Permian execution & marketing1 MBOED milestone; moderating growth for FCF; WAHA exposure management ~70% volumes priced at USGC; managing WAHA via firm transport; steady manufacturing approach Efficient, cash-focused
Exploration strategyAperture widened; frontier entries (Suriname, Namibia, Egypt) Frontier emphasis; Walvis Basin farm-in; potential 2026/2027 well; bringing Hess talent; new leadership Re-accelerating
Downstream & California marketRecord U.S. refinery throughput; Pasadena LTO project ramp Tightening CA supply due to policy; imports/pipeline discussions; competitive returns monitored Mixed: margin tailwinds, policy headwinds
LNG offtake & petrochemicalsUSGC LNG offtake 7 mtpa; CP Chem projects with QatarEnergy Portfolio positioned for global optimization; target ~20% IRR at CP Chem JV projects Constructive long-term

Management Commentary

  • “Third quarter results reflect record production, strong cash generation and sustained superior cash returns to shareholders.” — CEO Mike Wirth .
  • “We expect strong cash generation to continue even in a lower-priced environment, underpinned by increased capital efficiency and growth in high-margin assets.” — CFO Eimear Bonner .
  • On synergies: “We had a $1 billion synergy target… we will deliver that run rate savings this year… showing up in 3Q and expect more in 4Q.” — CFO .
  • On WAHA exposure: “~70% of our production gets US Gulf Coast pricing… we use excess firm transport to capture ARB and offset exposure.” — CEO .
  • On exploration: “More emphasis on frontier exploration… balanced mature near-infrastructure and early entry high-impact areas; adding talent and speeding decisions.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Permian: Efficiency gains underpin >1 MBOED; steady program with fewer rigs/completion spreads; focus on FCF over growth .
  • TCO: Reliable operations at nameplate; Q4 pit stop; concession extension talks began; potential debottlenecking over time .
  • Bakken portfolio fit: Integrating Hess capabilities; evaluating long-term role and Hess Midstream structure for value; no rush on decisions .
  • California refining market: Structural tightness driven by policy; imports and pipeline proposals noted; Chevron monitoring return profile .
  • LNG/petrochemicals: Building globally connected LNG portfolio; CP Chem JV projects expected to deliver strong IRRs over time .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 EPS beat: Adjusted EPS $1.85 vs $1.70 consensus* (Primary EPS), driven by record production and downstream margin improvement; special items were $235MM, FX +$147MM .
  • Q3 2025 revenue slight miss: $48.17B sales and other operating revenues vs $48.30B consensus*, as liquids realizations were lower YoY and Brent averaged $69 vs $80 .
  • Prior quarters: Q2 2025 EPS $1.77 vs $1.74*, revenue $44.38B vs $45.14*; Q1 2025 EPS $2.18 vs $2.15*, revenue $46.10B vs $48.39* — broadly inline to modest EPS beats with mixed revenue vs consensus .

Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Chevron delivered an EPS beat despite lower YoY realizations and transaction costs; record production and improved downstream margins are offsetting macro headwinds .
  • Adjusted FCF inflected to $7.0B; cash returns ($6.0B) were fully covered, signaling resilience in a sub-$70 Brent environment and supporting buybacks/dividends near-term .
  • Hess integration is tracking ahead: $1B run-rate synergies in 2025, strong Guyana/Bakken contributions; Investor Day likely to reinforce FCF growth through decade .
  • Upstream mix and marketing strength (USGC pricing, WAHA mitigation) reduce earnings volatility; expect continued focus on capital efficiency and plateau management in shale .
  • TCO reliability and control-center optimization drive affiliate cash; Q4 pit stop implies temporary production dip and lower distributions, not a structural change .
  • Frontier exploration (Namibia/Suriname/Egypt) re-accelerates option value for late-decade; watch for well results and portfolio adds .
  • Near-term trading: EPS beat and FCF strength are supportive; revenue miss is minor. Medium-term thesis: scaled low-cost upstream, disciplined capital allocation, and integrated gas/petrochemicals underpin FCF growth and shareholder returns .
Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted earnings exclude special items and FX; adjusted FCF includes equity affiliate loan repayments and asset sale proceeds per company definitions **[93410_0000093410-25-000103_a09302025ex9918-k.htm:4]** **[93410_0000093410-25-000103_a09302025ex9918-k.htm:11]** **[93410_0000093410-25-000103_a09302025ex9918-k.htm:12]**.

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